Expectations of Being the New #1
2/15/2012
Andrew Luck will have the greatest amount of expectations placed upon him by any athlete, ever. Before he even takes a snap, he will enter a divided city, been critiqued beyond comparison, and probably received more media coverage than the Brett Favre saga, not to mention his attempt to fill the shoes of one of the greatest quarterbacks.
A famous study examined teachers and they were informed that specific students were expected to show big gains in the upcoming year. Although the students were selected at random, the ones that the teachers thought were selected actually showed the greatest improvement. The Rosenthal effect revealed that the greater the expectation placed on someone, the better they will perform.
In sport however, we all know of stellar athletes that did not live up to expectations and the converse of individuals who far exceeded expectations. There is a slight, but important difference between expectations and confidence. Expectations are ultimately out of our control and can sometimes lead to undue pressure, whereas the feeling of confidence is something that we can control and often the deciding factor of success. So, will the level of expectations outweigh the level of confidence of the #1 draft pick?
Drafting a NFL quarterback is an inexact science, but this upcoming draft will resemble drafting #1 in a fantasy league; the Colts can’t afford not to take Andrew Luck. As one NFL player personnel under anonymity pointed out, “Luck may not be a homerun, but he most likely will be a double.” The Colts can’t pass the dice that he may be the best ever, and as a result will experience the zenith or fall of his performance.
History has taught us that no one is a sure thing when it comes to draft picks, partly due to the amount of expectations and the ability of an athlete to handle these expectations inside the huddle and outside of the team. Besides the drama created by not actually playing for the team that drafted the number #1 pick, ã la, Eli Manning and John Elway, no other first overall pick will enter the fray with higher expectations.
The Comparisons
Andrew Luck’s caliber will reside somewhere in the middle of previous #1 overall draft picks, Hall of Fame (i.e. John Elway/Troy Aikman), or complete bust (i.e. Tim Couch/David Carr/Joey Harrington/Jamarcus Russell). However, since that disparity is vast, it is more realistic that he will perform as similarly to other first overall draft picks, either one of the top quarterbacks in the league (i.e. Eli Manning/Matthew Stafford) or a serviceable field general (i.e. Carson Palmer).
Part of expectations resides in the direct comparisons. Andrew Luck will most closely be compared to the past two Heisman Trophy winners, Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton. Remember, Cam Newton became the #1 pick when Luck decided to return last season to Stanford. In fact, expectations for immediate success exist because of the first round rookie quarterbacks drafted in 2011. Four of them alone became starters and Andy Dalton even led the Bengals to the playoffs.
The Mindset of a City
Replacing ANY Hall of Fame quarterback appears tumultuous. The distinguished list includes: Jay Fiedler, Brian Griese, Rob Johnson/Doug Flutie, & Jeff Hostetler. Fiedler replaced Dan Marino and actually led the team to the playoffs in 2000 and 2001, but there have also been 13 starting QB’s in Miami since Marino’s retirement. Brian Griese replaced John Elway, and actually made the pro-bowl in 2000. Rob Johnson and Doug Flutie replaced HOF’er Jim Kelly with the Bills, and Jeff Hostetler replaced Phil Simms of the Giants, and won a super-bowl but was oft injured and could not retain the starting job.
More so, actually removing a city’s starting quarterback is nothing short of messy. Andrew Luck replacing Peyton Manning may be more difficult than any other change in history. Steve Young finally earned the starting job from Joe Montana with the 49ers, but only after demonstrating Hall of Fame potential and being a back-up for four years. The pressure that Steve Young felt was never lifted until he actually won Super Bowl XXIX. The Brett Favre drama that ensued about his retirement was fodder for the media like no other, but Aaron Rodgers was still an understudy for three seasons before supplanting the gunslinger. To a lesser extent, in 2008, Matt Ryan became the starting quarterback of the Atlanta Falcons, but only after the team and city was embarrassed due to Michael Vick’s imprisonment.
Andrew Luck’s performance will be forever intertwined with Peyton Manning. Andrew Luck will experience the residue of having divided a city solely due to the Colts decision to release (or keep) Peyton Manning. So the omnipresent conversation about Peyton will surface after every pick, every loss, and to the extent of Peyton’s success with another team. Considering Peyton Manning may line up on the other side of the ball, (the NFL will most certainly put this match-up together) the shadow of Peyton Manning will loom large while he is still in the league and even past. Oddly enough, but assuaging the expectations of Luck will depend more on Peyton, his injury, and Peyton’s performance with another team rather than how Luck play’s.
Peyton Manning was also an outstanding leader and he made others around him great. Andrew Luck’s ability to lead the team will be a major component to the overall progression and success. John Wooten, scout and instructor at Sport Management Worldwide with over 44 years of NFL experience, knows that the intangibles and a player’s character are the deciding factors of success. For instance, he said, “Ryan Leaf and Peyton Manning were as close number-wise as any two players could have been.” In 1998, It was the reason why San Diego traded two first round picks just to move up one spot in the order.
The Critique
It is interesting not only the impact of the NFL combine, but how it alone creates pundits and seems like it’s a no-win situation. If he scores and performs well, the expectations still increase, however, if he doesn’t, then doubts creep in. Everyone during combine and draft time becomes an expert on the tangibles and intangibles: “does he say the right things?”, “What about his footwork”, “40 yard dash time”, “arm strength”, and the ever dubious “Wonderlic score?” Media coaches, strength coaches, trainers, and agents make certain he will excel at these questions. In essence though, the questions are not centered around IF he’s the right pick, it will be on is he THE pick.
The End
Past performance does not equate to future success, but Andrew Luck appears deserving of the #1 draft pick. He returned for a successful senior season (under a new head coach), obviously has the requisite talent and intelligence, and possesses a world-class pedigree and mentorship from his father, Oliver Luck. Additionally, the presence of a new GM and head coach will assuage the burden Andrew Luck will encounter. However, make no mistake this draft pick will face greater expectations than the #1 pick in 1998.
Oh, and if the Colts draft RG III, forget about it…..
Dr. Rob Bell is the author of Mental Toughness Training for Golf, and AASP certified Sport Psychology consultant. He consults with athletes and coaches at all levels helping build and enhance their own mental toughness.
His website is www.drrobbell.com and you can find him on Twitter @drrobbell
